Explore global rice supply & demand in 2025. Learn how Vietnam can thrive as the 2nd largest exporter. Key trends, pricing, & import shifts inside.

Demand (Consumption & Trade)

Global consumption is anticipated at 530.3 million tonnes for 2024–2025—an increase of 6.1 million tonnes—driven by demand growth in Nepal, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines, fueled by population expansion and shifting dietary habits in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa.

The rice trade is expected to increase by 4%, reaching 56.3 million tonnes, the second-highest level ever, driven by ample supplies and lower prices.

Africa—especially the sub-Saharan regions—is projected to become the world’s largest rice importer by 2025, overtaking Southeast Asia, as consumption has doubled over the past 15 years.

Leading importers: The Philippines remains the largest importer, consuming an estimated 18–19 million tonnes in 2025 due to insufficient domestic production.

Vietnam is expected to become the second-largest rice importer globally in 2025, with the USDA estimating up to 4 million tonnes. This shift results from reduced planting areas and increased demand for cheaper rice imports from Cambodia.

Global rice prices are expected to stabilize around USD 400–450/tonne (5% broken rice), benefiting both exporters and importers, though prices softened in early 2025 due to a 3.4-million-tonne surplus.

Market Trends

Global rice markets in 2025 will be shaped by:

Ample supplies from India and other Asian exporters are exerting downward price pressure.

Stable import demand from both traditional markets and emerging regions (Africa, Middle East), keeping trade levels robust.
Potential short-term price volatility caused by climate change, trade policy shifts (e.g., lower import tariffs in the Philippines), and geopolitical tensions.

Opportunities for Vietnamese Rice in 2025

Vietnam, projected to be the world’s second-largest rice exporter (~7.9 million tonnes in 2025), faces both significant opportunities and challenges:

Growing global food stock demand, climate change, political instability, and food security concerns are driving countries to boost rice reserves, ensuring steady demand.

Rice prices remain favorable, delivering stable margins for farmers and exporters despite occasional volatility.

Vietnam surpasses Thailand, securing the second-exporter position behind India (21–22 million tonnes).

Key markets export demand:

Philippines (≈50% of Vietnam’s exports) is expected to import 4.2 million tonnes, benefiting Vietnam due to geographic proximity, competitive prices, and established trade relationships.

Africa (Ivory Coast, Ghana) will likely overtake Southeast Asia as the largest rice-importing region in 2025, presenting growth opportunities for Vietnam.

China increases imports of specialty Vietnamese rice such as ST25 and glutinous rice (nếp).

High-end markets (EU, U.S., South Korea) are increasing imports of premium rice varieties (aromatic ST24, ST25, Japonica), offering Vietnam a path to expand value-added exports through trade agreements (EVFTA, CPTPP).

Vietnamese Rice Quality Improvements

In 2024, Vietnam achieved record exports of 9.81 million tonnes, earning USD 5.75 billion, with an average price of USD 627/tonne (+9% vs. 2023).

Programs like the “1 million hectares of high-quality rice” initiative in the Mekong Delta and national branding efforts have enhanced rice value and competitiveness.

Vietnamese rice now meets stringent food safety and pesticide-residue standards suitable for developed markets.

Flexible Trade Policies

Vietnam leverages free trade agreements (FTAs) with Europe and the Americas.

Government decrees facilitate streamlined rice export processes for traders.

Challenges for Vietnamese Rice in 2025

Intensified competition: India’s return to the market and increased exports from Thailand, Pakistan, and Myanmar drive down prices (Vietnamese 5% broken rice fell from USD 550 to 534/tonne in October 2024).

Export quantity vs. value tension:

VFA projects 2025 exports at ~7.5 million tonnes, down from 9.04 million tonnes in 2024 due to weakened global demand and heightened competition.

Despite a 12.2% increase in export volume during the first five months of 2025, export value dropped 8.9% year-over-year.

Climate risks: Drought, salinity intrusion, and flooding in the Mekong Delta threaten output.

Rising costs: Agricultural input and transportation expenses are up, squeezing exporter margins amid falling export prices.

Market volatility: Export policies from major producers like India and global political-economic developments can swiftly affect prices and demand.

Vietnam may become a rice importer: Despite export strength, delays in domestic production and demand for low-cost rice underscore systemic production and policy challenges.

Vietnam’s Rice Export Strategy for 2025

1. Enhance Quality & Build Branding

Ramp up production of high-value varieties: ST24, ST25, Japonica, and organic rice for EU, U.S., and South Korean markets.

Invest in post-harvest processing technology to reduce losses and increase grain value.

Obtain international standards: GlobalGAP, HACCP, traceability, pesticide-free certifications.

Promote the national rice brand via trade fairs and marketing campaigns.

2. Diversify Markets

Strengthen presence in traditional markets: Philippines, China, and West Africa (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana).

Enter new markets by leveraging EVFTA and CPTPP—in the EU, Canada, and Australia, especially for premium rice segments.

Expand partnerships in sub-Saharan Africa to meet escalating import demand.

Optimize supply chains:

Reduce production costs with advanced farming tech, drought-resistant seed, and efficient water management.

Establish stable raw-material zones in the Mekong Delta.

Build value-chain linkages among farmers, cooperatives, processors, and exporters to lower costs and ensure quality.

Manage inventory and production output to balance exports with domestic food security and avoid price fluctuations.

Negotiate lower logistical costs and prioritize short shipping routes (e.g., to the Philippines).

3. Strengthen Supportive Policies

Proactively monitor global market developments and trade policies to adapt business strategies quickly.

Invest in climate-resilient rice varieties and sustainable cultivation methods to mitigate risks like El Niño and climate change.

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Conclusion

The global rice market in 2025 will see abundant supply and record-breaking production and exports. However, prices may soften due to fierce competition and modest import growth. Vietnam has the opportunity to maintain and expand its position as the world’s second-largest rice exporter, backed by stable markets like the Philippines and China’s renewed interest.

To succeed, Vietnam must rise to challenges from India and other major exporters by enhancing quality, building brands, and adopting flexible export strategies. Clean, low-carbon rice will be a key strategic advantage in global markets.

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High-quality rice varieties: ST25, ST24, Jasmine, Japonica, Glutinous, and fragrant long-grain rice
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